Wanted: 12 million protesters

The goal for anti-Trump activists is to mobilize 3.5 percent of the U.S. population

Is there a magic number for the resistance?

Anti-Trump activists are increasingly pointing to one key threshold: mobilizing 3.5 percent of the U.S. population, or about 12 million people.

Why is 3.5 percent so important? Back in 2013, Harvard political scientist Erica Chenoweth concluded from a study of hundreds of 20th-century movements that, as a general rule, no government can withstand a challenge of 3.5 percent of its population without either accommodating the movement or falling apart.

Mobilizing that many people, the theory suggests, indicates that a solid majority of the population supports the movement.

The Women’s March in 2017 – widely considered the largest single-day protest in U.S. history -- drew an estimated 4 million people across the country, or about 1.3 percent of the total population.

This time around, no single day of protest has come anywhere close to that number. The biggest showing so far was on January 18, when the “People’s March” drew an estimated 50,000 people to Washington, D.C., with tens of thousands more at cities around the U.S.

But the resistance is undeniably growing. The question is will it get big enough, and if so, how quickly?

Chenoweth, who is also co-director of the Crowd Counting Consortium at Harvard, has been keeping a tally of all the marches, protests, strikes, and demonstrations since Trump’s election. She wrote recently (along with coauthors Jeremy Pressman and Soha Hammam) that “resistance against Trump’s agenda in America is not only alive and well. It is savvy, diversifying and probably just getting started”:

Protests of Trump may not look like the mass marches of 2017, but research shows they are far more numerous and frequent…

In February 2025 alone, we have already tallied over 2,085 protests, which included major protests in support of federal workers, LGBTQ rights, immigrant rights, Palestinian self-determination, Ukraine, and demonstrations against Tesla and Trump’s agenda more generally.

This is compared with 937 protests in the United States in February 2017, which included major protests against the so-called Muslim ban along with other pro-immigrant and pro-choice protests.

Coordinated days of protest such as March Fourth for Democracy (March 4), Stand Up for Science (March 7), rallies in recognition of International Women’s Day (March 8), and protests demanding the release of Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil suggest little likelihood of these actions slowing down.

I should note that the 3.5 percent rule is not ironclad. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for instance, remains in power even after over six percent of his country’s population demonstrated against him in March 2023, and five percent in September 2024.

But the 3.5 percent figure still carries great significance. MoveOn, for instance, recently cited Chenoweth’s work in an email and announced:

That's our mission: doubling or tripling the size of the Women's March and engaging 3.5% of the U.S. population in a massive protest to stop authoritarianism in America, which is here, at our doorstep, right now. That's what we're building to, because that's what it's going to take. Remember, tyranny cannot prevail over people who refuse to succumb to it.

Two Upcoming Opportunities to Grow the Movement

The public will have two occasions to show up in force in the next two weeks.

Elon Musk’s lead role in destroying government agencies has made his Tesla car business a lightning rod for protest, and as a result, demonstrations outside Tesla dealerships have become a regular occurrence.

But this Saturday, March 29, is going to be the biggest one yet. The Tesla Takedown movement has declared the 29^th as a “global day of action” targeting 277 Tesla locations around the U.S., and over 500 total around the world.

Actors, filmmakers, members of Congress, federal workers, academics, and journalists took part in an hourlong mass mobilizing call last week. The Verge reported that “The sharp decrease in Tesla’s stock in recent weeks has clearly invigorated the protests.”

And in what seems likely to become the largest anti-Trump protest of the second term, Indivisible has declared Saturday, April 5, as a “Hands Off” Day of Action with events “across the country, in major cities and small towns in every state.”

The organizers explain:

This mass mobilization day is our message to the world that we do not consent to the destruction of our government and our economy for the benefit of Trump and his billionaire allies. Alongside Americans across the country, we are marching, rallying, and protesting to demand a stop the chaos and build an opposition movement against the looting of our country.

The 505051 Movement and Women’s March are also mobilizing for the April 5 action.

“You can feel it everywhere you turn. Shock and despair are starting to give way to rage and action,” writes Los Angeles Times columnist Robin Abcarian, who anticipates millions protesting on April 5.

Becoming Economically Noncooperative

Marches are great, but Chenoweth, Pressman and Hammam have concluded that “economic noncooperation — such as strikes, boycotts and buycotts — is what often gets the goods.”

A “shift toward noncooperation over large-scale protests may be strategically wise,” they write.

And the public appetite is clearly there.

When asked about the boycotts that have been making headlines over the last few weeks, a stunning 36 percent of Americans said they are or will be participating, according to a Harris Poll for the Guardian.

That includes 53 percent of Gen Z respondents, 53 percent of Black respondents, and 49 percent of Democrat respondents.

The Guardian reports:

When given a list of reasons why they are boycotting, Americans said the top reason was they want to show companies that consumers have economic power and influence (53%) and express their dissatisfaction with current government policies (49%).

Nearly half of those boycotting (46%) also pointed to companies rolling back their diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies as a reason behind their boycott.

The boycott against Target, being led by Black church groups and Latino activists, continues until at least April 17. Target rolled back its ambitious diversity, equity and inclusion programs shortly after Trump took office.

The group behind the Feb. 28 economic blackout is planning more boycotts targeting Amazon, Nestle, Target, Walmart, McDonald's and General Mills, the Arizona Republic reports.

And a resource called Spending Spotlight helps consumers redirect their dollars away from companies funding attacks on reproductive freedom, LGBTQ+ rights and democracy. As Ms. Magazine reports:

For example, the Spotlight now recommends consumers switch away from Uber—which contributed $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund, with the CEO kicking in another million—to Lyft, which, in addition to not having made any direct contributions to the administration has also “kept its promise to withhold donations from election deniers.”

What Can You Do?

Democratic Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, speaking at the Human Rights Campaign’s annual Los Angeles dinner on Saturday night, encouraged immediate, mass action:

The question I get asked most right now is, “So what can I do? What can I do?” And I'm going to be blunt about this: Never before in my life have I called for mass activism, but this is the moment. Take to the streets, protest, show up at town halls, jam the phone lines in Congress -- (202) 224-3121 -- and afford not a moment of peace to any elected representatives who are aiding and abetting Musk and Trump's illegal power grab. This is not a drill, folks, this is the real thing….

We can't sit back right now and wait to see what happens. If we wait, I guarantee you the battle will have already been lost.

Former Obama administration official Ben Rhodes wrote a New York Times opinion column encouraging ordinary people to create and join issue-based movements.

Spotlight harms that will come to everyday people… Protest at shuttered facilities in communities…. Make noise however you can. Amplify the voices of people out in the country. Hold town halls where Republicans are afraid to. Boycott the businesses of specific billionaires, like Elon Musk. File lawsuits. Sign petitions. Organize communities, including deep red ones. Support people who get arrested. Create a culture around the movement.

Massive Crowds for Bernie Sanders and AOC

The rallies that Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hosted Thursday through Sunday were enormous and enthusiastic.

An estimated 34,000 people gathered to hear them on Friday evening in Denver. That’s huge. By comparison, the largest rally of Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, in Houston, with Beyonce, drew a crowd of about 30,000.

Sanders and AOC spoke before a crowd of about 20,000 in Tucson, and about 11,000 in Greeley, Colorado. They overflowed a 5,000-seat arena in Tempe, Arizona. Thousands more joined in Las Vegas.

Why?

“I wanted to hear the positive message after all the negative that’s been going on,” Tucson attendee Matilda Martinez told the New Yorker.

“We want to hear what the plans are — are we just going to be sitting on our behinds, talking a lot? Or are we actually going to be doing something?” Leanna Terrell, who attended the Las Vegas rally, told the Washington Post.

Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Will Bunch wrote about Sanders and AOC that “frankly there’s nothing new or surprising in their spot-on diatribes against income inequality. But what matters is that so many desperate people feel a need to be in the same place, to know that they are not alone.”

Mother Jones’s Tim Murphy reported:

The Fighting Oligarchy tour is drawing larger crowds than the Sanders presidential campaign ever did, but it’s also drawing a different sort of crowd…. A significant number had not attended a political event or a protest before. Many of these voters found Sanders’ long-running message of a growing oligarchy newly resonant at a time when the richest man in the world has been given carte blanche to dismantle public institutions. Above all, they showed up because they wanted to hear elected officials express the sort of frustration and rage Democratic voters have been feeling for months. They wanted to be where the fight was.

Scenes From Town Halls and Protests

• Utah Republican Reps. Celeste Maloy and Mike Kennedy fielded boos and calls to “Do your job!” at a town hall in Salt Lake City on Thursday, the Salt Lake Tribune reported. “The first question asked, because it received over 200 thumbs up from attendees, came from Brigham Young University professor Peter Reschke: ‘If the current administration continues to defy court orders, will you commit to call for articles of impeachment to protect our republic’s checks and balances?’” Read the list of submitted questions – many are great.

• A central Ohio crowd of about 1,400 packed a ballroom at an “empty chair town hall” featuring the absence of Republican Sens. Bernie Moreno and Jon Husted. According to the Ohio Capital Journal, audience members complained that their federal officials are “not standing up to President Donald Trump as he allows the world’s richest man to slash federal programs.”

• Indiana Republican Rep. Mark Messmer was a no-show at a “People's Town Hall” in Evansville. “Many of those in attendance wore t-shirts urging ‘resistance,” reported the Evansville Courier & Press. One t-shirt stated, “WHEN INJUSTICE BECOMES LAW RESISTANCE BECOMES DUTY." Signs declared "WE WON'T GO BACK TO GERMANY 1933" and "MORONS ARE GOVERNING AMERICA.”

• Republican congressman Andy Biggs of Arizona held a town hall last week, but with a twist: Only Republicans could attend and the media wasn’t allowed in either. Two people who were turned away from the event for not being Republicans spoke to the Courier Newsroom. “This is cowardice,” one of them said. “This is not the way the United States is supposed to be run.”

• MSNBC showed footage of GOP Rep. Harriet Hageman getting booed for defending Elon Musk and his team at town hall in Wyoming. “Deport Elon! Deport Elon!” screamed the audience in a state that voted for Trump by 46 points. “You guys are going to have a heart attack if you don’t calm down. I’m sorry. Your hysteria is really over the top,” Hageman said, adding “It's so bizarre to me how obsessed you are with the federal government.”

• According to the Des Moines Register, Republican Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley spoke to a “packed room of heated Iowans” on Friday, “urging him to ‘stand up for what's right’ against Congress and President Donald Trump's administration.” One speaker drew cheers for his comment: “My question, which I think is on our minds here, is where is Congress?”

• Climate protesters interrupted Democratic Sen. Michael Bennett’s town hall in Golden, Colorado, where audience members repeatedly asked him what he was doing to fight back against Trump. Colorado Newsline reported that “The first constituent to ask a question Wednesday said ‘words are great’ but that he wasn’t seeing any action, and attendees asking for more substantial answers and actions to oppose Trump policies continued throughout the night.” 9NEWS in Denver followed up with Bennett after the town hall “about whether Democrats have a cohesive plan to combat the Trump administration's actions. Bennett told us it's clear Democrats need to develop a better one.”

• Demonstrators lined the hallways at the Alaska State Capitol to protest Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s annual address to the legislature. The Alaska Beacon reported that “People held signs written on the permitted size paper of 11 by 17 inches, some reading ‘You work for us not Trump!’, ‘Treat Canada like our friend, not our enemy!’ and ‘No Kings!’”

• Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin was met by boos and catcalls as he left a commemoration of the 250th anniversary of Patrick Henry’s “Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death” speech. Organizers called the demonstration, “250 Years of No Kings in America.” Here’s some video

Resistance Hero of the Week

MSNBC’s Chris Hayes tells the story of Sarah Inama, a 6th grade teacher at a Idaho middle school who was instructed to remove from her classroom a sign that said “everyone is welcome here”. She was told it violated policy requiring classroom content to be neutral. After initially taking the sign down, she decided to put it back up, and became a national and international hero. KTVB-TV has more. Here’s a photo of a high school walkout in her honor.